Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.917140 3.504245 4.160928 4.947187 5.860161 6.883938 8.115806
2025-04-20 2.129537 2.930998 3.934117 5.268646 6.982525 9.093275 11.870852
2025-04-27 1.582331 2.454203 3.656556 5.403899 7.840117 11.072527 15.632350
2025-05-04 1.245663 2.145937 3.496053 5.610111 8.764416 13.209317 19.835250
2025-05-11 0.964708 1.834020 3.242772 5.602743 9.342352 14.896080 23.576760
2025-05-18 0.728203 1.524407 2.914735 5.397291 9.557058 16.038245 26.610790
2025-05-25 0.544927 1.254621 2.587317 5.116523 9.582652 16.857037 29.196372
2025-06-01 0.434800 1.092504 2.411604 5.054569 9.941085 18.211750 32.718098
2025-06-08 0.349343 0.956112 2.252841 4.988313 10.268233 19.527958 36.274503
2025-06-15 0.311893 0.916704 2.278664 5.274497 11.260066 22.057753 42.062939
2025-06-22 0.261196 0.829986 2.185347 5.302746 11.762203 23.763543 46.562769
2025-06-29 0.217434 0.747280 2.082704 5.291445 12.178695 25.341925 50.951890
2025-07-06 0.178909 0.668158 1.975791 5.262676 12.575958 26.958843 55.619563
2025-07-13 0.167405 0.666192 2.059717 5.682342 13.959580 30.582897 64.290521
2025-07-20 0.146434 0.627210 2.040296 5.856375 14.839343 33.305964 71.481342
2025-07-27 0.130492 0.599384 2.044747 6.088469 15.871801 36.417003 79.640702
2025-08-03 0.109411 0.544684 1.961077 6.084448 16.369732 38.484137 85.915066
2025-08-10 0.086418 0.471921 1.805690 5.864965 16.338171 39.446674 90.063363
2025-08-17 0.066270 0.400028 1.632685 5.563456 16.067126 39.868402 93.136706
2025-08-24 0.054508 0.359123 1.549092 5.496961 16.361507 41.532683 98.879549
2025-08-31 0.044752 0.322283 1.469101 5.425723 16.632987 43.164502 104.661699
2025-09-07 0.041752 0.319529 1.511682 5.733636 17.923157 47.193011 115.808734
2025-09-14 0.035604 0.295491 1.467912 5.764028 18.478491 49.573046 123.531744